1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	308566	Nova Lux	Current	71	7.71	5.55	2.67
			Estimated	400	7.14	5.80	2.72

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Nova Lux, you take charge of a federation of orphaned alien species that have escaped dying star systems in the wake of a galactic apocalypse. The Universe is winding down. Entropy is increasing to maximum. You must manage precious resources through trade, conflict, and exploration to sustain biological life and power your Ark of Salvation, Hydrogen Converters, and Biosphere Engine — all while building a star colony that can outlast the end of the universe and give it new light, a.k.a., "nova lux". Nova Lux is for 1 to 6 players, lasts roughly 45-60 minutes and combines resource management, engine-building, and off-turn action mechanisms to make for fast, compelling, and continuous gameplay. —description from the designer

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/308566

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Nova Lux? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Nova Lux. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Nova Lux. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	308566	Nova Lux	1.00	5.55	7.71	2.72	71
1	2017	195231	Merchants of Araby	0.89	5.59	6.42	2.00	205
2	1999	47	Chinatown	0.87	7.06	7.37	2.26	9,445
3	2015	179606	Mafia, cosa di capo	0.86	5.54	6.31	1.36	101
4	2015	127096	Metal Adventures	0.85	5.56	6.11	2.40	176
5	2015	172994	Catan: Traveler – Compact Edition	0.85	5.74	7.10	2.14	353
6	2018	250754	Trade on the Tigris	0.84	5.79	7.15	2.77	373
7	2014	168082	Intendentes	0.84	5.54	7.40	2.38	41
8	2015	159003	Raid & Trade	0.83	5.51	5.88	2.78	246
9	2017	227254	Hafid's Grand Bazaar	0.83	5.55	6.84	2.00	78
10	2014	23304	"Oh My God! There's An Axe In My Head." The Game of International Diplomacy	0.83	5.50	5.78	2.18	85
11	2003	6778	The Settlers of Zarahemla	0.83	5.80	6.84	2.54	552
12	2008	33107	Senji	0.83	5.96	6.52	2.96	1,492
13	1980	71	Civilization	0.82	7.06	7.50	3.66	7,249
14	2004	8160	Illuminati: Crime Lords	0.82	5.54	5.86	2.60	246
15	2013	118174	Compounded	0.81	6.23	6.73	2.43	2,671
16	1983	42050	Eurobusiness	0.81	5.29	4.74	1.47	538
17	2007	27746	Colosseum	0.81	6.91	7.21	2.76	8,677
18	2012	128412	Bohn to Be Wild!	0.81	5.71	6.65	1.78	384
19	2002	3230	Tyros	0.81	5.82	6.44	2.46	912
20	2003	3931	Mare Nostrum	0.81	6.25	6.72	2.99	3,160
21	2006	35262	Monopoly: Here & Now Electronic Banking	0.81	5.49	5.42	2.50	58
22	2009	41186	Monopoly City	0.80	5.49	5.60	2.11	1,032
23	2007	30645	Tammany Hall	0.80	6.70	7.28	2.77	3,728
24	2004	28479	Monopoly: New Disney	0.80	5.49	4.92	2.50	31
25	2007	29924	Monopoly: Transformers	0.80	5.48	5.29	2.33	85

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Nova Lux while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	308566	Nova Lux	5.55	1.00	5.55	7.71	2.72	71
1	1999	47	Chinatown	6.15	0.87	7.06	7.37	2.26	9,445
2	1980	71	Civilization	5.81	0.82	7.06	7.50	3.66	7,249
3	2015	172818	Above and Below	5.66	0.79	7.14	7.39	2.52	14,283
4	2007	27746	Colosseum	5.60	0.81	6.91	7.21	2.76	8,677
5	2007	30645	Tammany Hall	5.38	0.80	6.70	7.28	2.77	3,728
6	2013	118174	Compounded	5.06	0.81	6.23	6.73	2.43	2,671
7	2014	156091	Sons of Anarchy: Men of Mayhem	5.05	0.77	6.54	7.27	2.56	2,749
8	2003	3931	Mare Nostrum	5.05	0.81	6.25	6.72	2.99	3,160
9	2004	12477	Bootleggers	5.02	0.80	6.24	6.69	2.63	3,196
10	2017	195231	Merchants of Araby	4.95	0.89	5.59	6.42	2.00	205
11	2012	117985	Star Trek: Catan	4.94	0.77	6.44	7.01	2.37	3,445
12	2008	33107	Senji	4.92	0.83	5.96	6.52	2.96	1,492
13	2015	172994	Catan: Traveler – Compact Edition	4.88	0.85	5.74	7.10	2.14	353
14	1994	115	I'm the Boss!	4.88	0.77	6.35	6.78	1.97	3,659
15	2018	250754	Trade on the Tigris	4.86	0.84	5.79	7.15	2.77	373
16	2004	13551	Oltre Mare	4.83	0.78	6.18	6.64	2.51	2,729
17	2003	6778	The Settlers of Zarahemla	4.80	0.83	5.80	6.84	2.54	552
18	2015	179606	Mafia, cosa di capo	4.74	0.86	5.54	6.31	1.36	101
19	2015	127096	Metal Adventures	4.74	0.85	5.56	6.11	2.40	176
20	2017	229218	A Game of Thrones: Catan – Brotherhood of the Watch	4.71	0.77	6.12	7.15	2.53	1,322
21	2002	3230	Tyros	4.71	0.81	5.82	6.44	2.46	912
22	2014	168082	Intendentes	4.64	0.84	5.54	7.40	2.38	41
23	2012	128412	Bohn to Be Wild!	4.62	0.81	5.71	6.65	1.78	384
24	2017	227254	Hafid's Grand Bazaar	4.61	0.83	5.55	6.84	2.00	78
25	2015	159003	Raid & Trade	4.58	0.83	5.51	5.88	2.78	246

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	308566	Nova Lux	Dragon Egg Games	Max Robbins		Adventure		Area Movement
						Civilization		Layering
						Economic		Map Reduction
						Exploration		Modular Board
						Fighting		Open Drafting
						Negotiation		Pieces as Map
						Science Fiction		Resource to Move
						Space Exploration		Set Collection
								Trading

Individual Game Analysis